TV Guide.com is predicting, based on talks on strike lines with striking writers, that the WGA Strike could be over in time for the Oscars, which are scheduled to air on February 24. That’s about four weeks away.
While a bold prediction, there is evidence both in favor of, and against, such a resolution, so no one should start ordering the imprinted promotional products for the Oscars just yet. In favor of an impending resolution are many bits of evidence. Individual studios keep striking transitional agreements with writers, to get them back to work early, every day; last week, Marvel, Lionsgate and RKO became the latest to announce individual agreements.
Also, the WGA-AMPTP negotiations, which resumed last week, are still on with no new breakdowns to muddle up the works. Technically, the atmosphere is ripe for a settlement and a tentative labor agreement could be reached any day, though it would take about a week after such an announcement for the WGA to put any such agreement to a membership vote and collect the results.
So here’s the real schedule: the Oscars would need to see a green light from the WGA no later than a week in advance. That pushes the deadline out to February 17. But that would have to be the day the membership of the WGA votes in favor of an agreement, since announcing a tentative settlement wouldn’t end the strike. So that means the latest a tentative agreement can be reached for the strike to end and the Oscars to go forward would be February 10, just under two weeks from now.
At least one writer interviewed on the picket line by TV Guide has admitted that if the strike remains unsettled to the point that the Oscars must be sidelined in the way the Golden Globes were, it would almost guarantee that the strike could drag on well into summer, perhaps as long as another year.
Scary thought. Let’s hope they work out a tentative agreement soon!
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